Operational Search Support For MH370

RPS’ SARMAP drift modelling system, which is adopted nationally in Australia, was used to predict and optimise the potential drift of debris that may have resulted from an aircraft that had crashed into the ocean. As part of our ‘best practice’ approach, the debris drift predictions were conducted using an ensemble modelling method where a range of debris and environmental conditions were leveraged. Multiple ’targets‘ were used in the models, following consultation with AMSA and the United States Coast Guard, to represent the different types of debris expected, as each type is influenced to varying degrees by the wind and ocean currents. Multiple data forecasts were used due to the complexity of the environmental conditions and the need to develop a consensus view on the likely drift patterns. This approach provided ‘higher likelihood’ zones where multiple forecasts overlapped, which were then used to define the search areas.

Model performance was evaluated by comparison to thirty-three search and rescue datum buoys deployed during the operation. The buoys measured the actual surface drift in the ocean, and allowed for comparison against predictions made using each combination of the wind and ocean current forecasts. These were then used to guide the most reliable drift forecast upon which to base the search area design.