RPS was contracted to provide support and modeling services for the Shell Shelburne Basin Exploration Drilling Program in the NW Atlantic Ocean, offshore Nova Scotia. Analyses included portions of an Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA), a Net Environmental Benefits Analysis (NEBA), and a Risk Assessment (RA). Related to the EIA, both accidental and operational discharges were modeled. In the NEBA, both surface and subsurface dispersant applications were modeled to determine the likely effects.
Accidental discharges of hydrocarbons were modeled by RPS at representative sites throughout the Shell Exploration Licenses. This included the trajectory and fate modeling of hypothetical releases of crude oil from deep-water blowouts at multiple depths, and surface releases of diesel. OILMAP Deep was used to characterize the near-field conditions of the blowout in the region directly around the wellhead. These results were used to initialize the SIMAP modeling system, which assessed the transport and fate of hydrocarbons throughout the environment. Stochastic analyses provided probabilistic results specifying the likelihood and extent of multiple specific threshold exceedances of surface oil thickness, shoreline oil mass, and in water contamination. Deterministic analyses provided specific trajectory and mass balance information for representative 95th percentile cases of surface, shore, and water column contamination. The goal was to determine the range of effects that may be expected in the event of a release and were included in the EIA.
RPS also modeled accidental and operational drilling discharges that may be possible with the exploratory drilling. Using RPS’s MUDMAP model, the effects from operational discharges of mud and cuttings, as well as accidental releases of synthetic based mud (SBM) originating at the sea surface and the marine riser were determined for the same representative sites. This modeling assessed seabed depositions and total suspended solid concentrations associated in the water column and were included in the EIA.
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