Oil and gas price forecasting
At RPS, we understand that the oil price curve underpins every decision our clients make. As specialists across the oil and gas value chain, we provide our clients with an informed opinion, using available data and providing deep expertise to support their strategy.
Our multi-disciplinary team of specialists experienced in crude oil trading delivers a view based on the market fundamentals, combined with our technical analysis of the long-term, marginal oil and gas costs.
RPS issues an oil and gas price report quarterly. This report's primary purpose is to provide an educated long-term view on oil and gas price levels that can be applied to investment profitability analysis, existing hydrocarbon project evaluations, and planning. Our analysis is based on market fundamentals and reviews of the short term (1 to 4 years) and medium to long term (4+ years) issues/challenges that may influence the leading oil and gas price.
Our team of commercial specialists review quarterly demand and supply fundamentals produced by International Energy Agency (IEA) and the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA). We also review reports on macro-economic trends (World Bank, International Monetary Fund, Statistics Bureaux), technology progress reports, policy changes and investment flows.
We apply a top-down approach starting at a global level, followed by regional analysis, and then focus on local trends and indicators. There is an emphasis on the following factors:
- Energy transition and environmental pressures
- Demand forecast
- Supply fundamentals
- Geopolitics affecting demand/supply
- Changing trading flows
- Stock levels
- Forward prices, market curve and price volatility,
- Financial markets, market sentiment
- Investment flows
- Cost of production and marginal cost of supply
- Taxation and Legislation
- Weather/seasonality
- Sector analysis across the value chain: an upstream agenda aligned with downstream
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Q1 2023 forecast and commentary
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Jim Bradly
